Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Project Freedom was a U.S.-led military initiative to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump, the United States government, or the United States military announces that Project Freedom will be restarted by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement explicitly stating that “Project Freedom” will be restarted will qualify. Additionally, any announcement of a substantially equivalent United States military program to escort, protect, or retrieve commercial ships in or through the Strait of Hormuz will qualify. Only definitive announcements will qualify.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| May 15 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| May 31 | 38% YES | 63% NO |
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world's most strategically sensitive waterways, with roughly one-fifth of global oil passing through its narrow chokepoint annually. Project Freedom, originally launched in 2019 as a U.S.-led coalition effort to protect commercial shipping from Iranian threats, represented a significant commitment to maintaining freedom of navigation in the region. The market assesses the likelihood that a Trump administration would formally restart or announce an equivalent programme by May 2026, with the current order book on Polymarket pricing this outcome at 3% implied probability.
Historical precedent suggests caution in reading this probability. Project Freedom was wound down as regional tensions fluctuated and the Trump administration's first term ended; subsequent administrations deprioritised the initiative despite periodic Houthi attacks on shipping and Iranian seizures of vessels. Comparable U.S. naval escort operations have typically required sustained geopolitical pressure or direct attacks on American interests to justify formal restart announcements. The low probability reflects both the absence of a current formal programme and the administrative and diplomatic hurdles involved in reconstituting multinational maritime coalitions.
Key catalysts include escalations in Red Sea or Gulf shipping incidents, Iranian military provocations, or explicit Trump administration statements on Gulf strategy following any 2025 policy announcements. Congressional appropriations debates and statements from Pentagon leadership would signal shifting priorities. The settlement window extends to May 2026, capturing the early months of a potential Trump presidency but excluding longer-term strategic pivots that might materialise later.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Trump restart Project Freedom by 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$103K in lifetime turnover and $64K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for strait of hormuz contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $103K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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