Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player joins or leaves FURIA's main CS2 roster (defined as players listed with status = "Starter" in the "Players of FURIA" table on HLTV: https://www.hltv.org/team/8297/furia#tab-rosterBox) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". As of market creation the active starter roster consists of the following five players: FalleN, yuurih, YEKINDAR, KSCERATO, and molodoy. Name changes or aliases referring to the same player do not qualify as roster changes.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will FURIA make a roster change before July? | 28% YES | 73% NO |
FURIA's CS2 roster, currently anchored by in-game leader FalleN alongside yuurih, YEKINDAR, KSCERATO, and molodoy, faces a settlement window extending to 30 June 2026. The market is pricing a 28% probability of at least one roster addition or departure during this period, reflecting moderate expectations of squad stability over the next six months.
Competitive Counter-Strike rosters typically experience turnover at predictable intervals, particularly around major tournament cycles and during the off-season following significant events. FURIA's recent history shows the organisation has maintained core lineups through extended periods, though the team has made tactical adjustments when performance warrants intervention. The current 28% implied probability sits between the extremes of roster permanence and the higher churn rates observed in teams underperforming at tier-one events. Historical precedent suggests established five-stacks with established chemistry tend toward stability unless external pressures—poor results at majors, contract expirations, or player departures to rival organisations—force management's hand.
Traders should monitor FURIA's performance at upcoming international tournaments, particularly any tier-one events scheduled before mid-2026, as disappointing results often precipitate roster discussions. Contract renewal announcements and any public statements from FalleN or management regarding squad direction will signal intent. Additionally, transfer market activity involving competing organisations seeking to poach FURIA players, or conversely, FURIA's interest in acquiring external talent, would represent concrete catalysts. The relatively modest implied probability reflects confidence in the current lineup's cohesion, though the six-month window provides sufficient time for circumstances to shift.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.hltv.org/team/8297/furia#tab-rosterBox. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Will FURIA make a roster change before July?" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$146 in lifetime turnover and $82 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 28%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.hltv.org/team/8297/furia#tab-rosterBox. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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