Trade: UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Allan Nascimento" if Allan Nascimento is officially declared the winner of the fight against Mitch Raposo at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi, scheduled for June 20, 2026. It will resolve to "Mitch Raposo" if Mitch Raposo is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 4, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $630
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo | 63% YES | 37% NO |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Nascimento to win by KO/TKO? | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Raposo to win by KO/TKO? | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Fight won by submission? | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 51% YES | 49% NO |
Market context
Allan Nascimento and Mitch Raposo are scheduled to compete in a flyweight preliminary bout at UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi on 20 June 2026. The market currently reflects 63% implied probability for Nascimento's victory, formed across Polymarket's order book as traders price their assessments of the matchup. Settlement occurs shortly after the event concludes, with a 50-50 resolution if the bout ends in a draw, technical draw, no contest, or cancellation beyond 4 July.
Nascimento holds a professional record indicating competitive experience at flyweight, whilst Raposo represents another developing fighter at the division. Preliminary bouts at UFC Fight Night events historically feature fighters building records or returning from layoffs, creating wider outcome variance than main card fights. The 63% probability suggests the market views Nascimento as a modest favourite, though the spread indicates meaningful uncertainty about fight execution and judging outcomes.
Traders should monitor official UFC announcements regarding fighter health, weight cuts, or late withdrawals in the weeks preceding the event. Preliminary fight cancellations occur occasionally due to injury or weight-miss complications. The event's main card headliners—Kape vs. Horiguchi—may also influence preliminary scheduling or fighter momentum narratives. Any roster changes or fighter statements regarding preparation will affect the order book's pricing as settlement approaches.
Wikipedia Context
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UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. CostaUFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa was a mixed martial arts event produced by the Ultimate Fighting Championship that took place on May 16, 2026, at the Meta Apex in Enterprise, Nevada, part of the Las Vegas Valley, United States.
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UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 was a mixed martial arts event produced by the Ultimate Fighting Championship that took place on April 6, 2024, at the UFC Apex facility in Enterprise, Nevada, part of the Las Vegas Metropolitan Area, United States.
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UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. CraigUFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig was a mixed martial arts event produced by the Ultimate Fighting Championship that took place on November 18, 2023, at the UFC Apex facility in Enterprise, Nevada, part of the Las Vegas Metropolitan Area, United States.
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UFC on ESPN: Taira vs. ParkUFC on ESPN: Taira vs. Park was a mixed martial arts event produced by the Ultimate Fighting Championship that took place on August 2, 2025, at the UFC Apex in Enterprise, Nevada, part of the Las Vegas Valley, United States.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ufc.com/events. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $630 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ufc.com/events. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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