Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Sweden Allsvenskan game, scheduled for Saturday, May 16, 2026 between GAIS and Degerfors IF.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| GAIS | 60% YES | 41% NO |
| Draw (GAIS vs. Degerfors IF) | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| Degerfors IF | 17% YES | 84% NO |
On Saturday, 16 May 2026, GAIS will host Degerfors IF in a Sweden Allsvenskan fixture. The current order book on Polymarket prices a GAIS victory at 60% implied probability, reflecting moderate confidence in the home side but acknowledging meaningful uncertainty around the outcome. This probability has formed through active trading across the book's depth, with the spread between bid and ask prices indicating the market's assessment of information asymmetry at this stage of the season.
Historically, home advantage in Allsvenskan carries statistical weight—teams playing at their own ground win roughly 45–50% of matches across typical seasons—yet GAIS's specific form, injury status, and league position relative to Degerfors will determine whether the 60% figure properly captures the matchup. The fixture falls late in the season, meaning both clubs' trajectories, European competition fatigue, and relegation or promotion pressure will have crystallised by May 2026. Comparable mid-to-late season encounters between sides of similar calibre have often settled near the 55–65% range for home teams, suggesting the current price sits within historical norms.
Traders should monitor team news releases and official Allsvenskan communications in the weeks preceding the match. Injury confirmations, managerial changes, or unexpected fixture postponements would shift the order book materially. Recent form data—available through Swedish football media outlets—will provide the most concrete catalyst for repricing as the settlement window approaches. Weather conditions on match day and any late tactical announcements may also influence closing positions on the book.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.allsvenskan.se/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "GAIS vs. Degerfors IF" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $11K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.allsvenskan.se/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: