Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Copa Sudamericana game, scheduled for Tuesday, May 26, 2026 between CA San Lorenzo de Almagro and Recoleta FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| CA San Lorenzo de Almagro | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| Draw (CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Recoleta FC) | 31% YES | 69% NO |
| Recoleta FC | 36% YES | 65% NO |
San Lorenzo de Almagro will face Recoleta FC in a Copa Sudamericana fixture on 26 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices San Lorenzo's victory at 37%, implying roughly even odds between a San Lorenzo win and either a draw or Recoleta victory combined. This probability reflects the relative strength of the two Argentine clubs at the time of trading.
San Lorenzo competes in Argentina's top division and has established Copa Sudamericana pedigree, having reached the final of this competition in 2002. Recoleta, a lower-division side, would be considered underdogs in most matchups against a club of San Lorenzo's stature. Historical Copa Sudamericana results show that Argentine first-division clubs typically convert home advantage into wins roughly 55–65% of the time against lower-tier opponents, suggesting the current 37% probability may reflect either neutral venue conditions, recent form concerns with San Lorenzo, or uncertainty about squad availability closer to the fixture date.
Traders should monitor team news regarding injuries and suspensions in the weeks leading to 26 May, as Copa Sudamericana squads often feature rotated lineups. Weather conditions in Argentina during late May and any fixture rescheduling announcements from CONMEBOL could shift the probability. San Lorenzo's domestic league performance in the months preceding this match will provide the most reliable signal of their competitive state, whilst Recoleta's recent results in their division may indicate whether they arrive in unexpected form.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.conmebol.com/sudamericana/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Recoleta FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.conmebol.com/sudamericana/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 27 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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