Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This is a polymarket to predict which clubs are relegated from Serie A after the 2025–26 season. If the listed club is officially relegated by Serie A following the 2025–26 season, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If the 2025–26 Serie A season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from Serie A. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Cremonese | 59% YES | 42% NO |
| Pisa | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Verona | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Lecce | 38% YES | 63% NO |
| Sassuolo | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Cagliari | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| Parma | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Genoa | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Three clubs will be relegated from Serie A at the conclusion of the 2025–26 season, with the bottom three finishers dropping to Serie B. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 59% implied probability that a specified club faces relegation, indicating meaningful uncertainty about which teams will occupy those bottom positions come May 2026.
Serie A's relegation battle typically involves a cluster of five to seven clubs separated by narrow points margins in the final months. Historical precedent shows that teams within six points of the drop zone entering the final ten matches have roughly a 40–50% chance of surviving, whilst those eight points clear rarely descend. The 2024–25 season saw Lecce, Como and Frosinone battling near the bottom, though squad composition and managerial changes during the winter transfer window frequently alter trajectory. Clubs with volatile recent form—particularly those managing injuries to key players or experiencing tactical instability—command higher relegation probabilities on the market.
Traders should monitor Serie A's fixture congestion, European competition eliminations (which free up squad rotation), and January transfer activity closely. Managerial changes at struggling clubs often trigger sharp probability shifts; recent sackings at mid-table sides have historically preceded either stabilisation or collapse depending on replacement quality. The settlement window closes 28 May 2026, allowing resolution shortly after the season concludes, though any cancellation or non-completion by 1 October 2026 triggers a "No" resolution across all relegation markets.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Serie A - Which Clubs Get Relegated?" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$19K in lifetime turnover and $196 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $609 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 9 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 28 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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