Trade: Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Falkirk FC
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Scottish Premiership game, scheduled for Wednesday, May 13, 2026 between Heart of Midlothian FC and Falkirk FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $223K
- Total Volume
- —
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- —
Market outcomes
| Heart of Midlothian FC | 68% YES | 33% NO |
| Draw (Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Falkirk FC) | 20% YES | 81% NO |
| Falkirk FC | 13% YES | 88% NO |
Market context
Heart of Midlothian and Falkirk are scheduled to meet in the Scottish Premiership on Wednesday, 13 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a YES outcome at 68%, reflecting market participants' assessment of Hearts' likelihood to win or draw the fixture. Settlement occurs at 19:00 UTC on that date, with the match itself expected to conclude by early evening.
Hearts have historically held a competitive advantage over Falkirk in recent seasons, though Falkirk's league position and form heading into May will materially affect the fixture's dynamics. The 68% probability sits between a clear favourite and a competitive match, suggesting the market perceives Hearts as likely to take points but acknowledges meaningful uncertainty. Comparable fixtures between these sides over the past three seasons show variable outcomes; context around final-season standings and relegation/promotion implications will shape how traders should weight historical patterns against current circumstances.
Traders should monitor team news and injury updates in the weeks preceding 13 May, particularly any absences affecting key personnel. League position, points differential, and whether either side faces competing fixture congestion in the final weeks of the season will influence tactical approach and motivation. Official team sheets released closer to kick-off will provide concrete data on squad availability. Additionally, any managerial changes or significant tactical shifts announced by either club in the lead-up could shift the probability on the order book materially.
Wikipedia Context
-
Heart of Midlothian F.C.Heart of Midlothian Football Club, commonly known as Hearts, is a professional football club in Edinburgh, Scotland. The team competes in the Scottish Premiership, the top division of Scottish football. Hearts, the oldest football club in the Scottish capital, was formed in 1874, its name influenced by Walter Scott's novel The Heart of Midlothian (1818). The
-
The Heart of MidlothianThe Heart of Mid-Lothian is the seventh of Sir Walter Scott's Waverley Novels. It was originally published in four volumes on 25 July 1818, under the title of Tales of My Landlord, 2nd series, and the author was given as "Jedediah Cleishbotham, Schoolmaster and Parish-clerk of Gandercleugh". The main action, which takes place between September 1736 and May 1
-
Heart of Midlothian F.C. Reserves and Academy
In addition to the Heart of Midlothian F.C. first team competing in the Scottish Premiership, the club also maintains a side in the Lowland Football League and various youth teams in their Academy setup. They are often affectionately nicknamed "The Wee Jambos".
-
Heart of Midlothian W.F.C.
Heart of Midlothian Women Football Club, commonly known as Hearts Women, is a Scottish women's football club based in Edinburgh. They are members of the Scottish Women's Premier League (SWPL), the highest level football league in Scotland, and currently compete in its top tier, SWPL 1.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://spfl.co.uk/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Falkirk FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $223K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://spfl.co.uk/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Falkirk FC"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: