Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Top 14 match between Toulon and Bayonne, scheduled for April 25 2026.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Toulon | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Bayonne | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Toulon and Bayonne will meet in a Top 14 fixture on 25 April 2026, with settlement determined by the official match result. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for YES, indicating traders are pricing this as a certainty event—a reflection seen occasionally in sports markets when one outcome dominates pre-match positioning or when liquidity is thin relative to the binary structure.
Top 14 matches between established clubs rarely settle with such extreme certainty unless one side faces catastrophic injury or withdrawal. Toulon, a three-time Heineken Cup winner with consistent squad depth, typically commands favourability in domestic fixtures, but Bayonne has shown competitive resilience in recent seasons. Historical precedent suggests that even heavily favoured outcomes in French rugby carry meaningful uncertainty until match day; late team news, weather conditions, and tactical adjustments routinely shift expectations in the final week before kickoff.
Traders should monitor official team sheets released in the days preceding 25 April, particularly injury updates to key positions. Fixture congestion in the Top 14 calendar and European competition schedules may affect squad rotation decisions. The settlement window closes on 2 May at 15:00 UTC, allowing approximately one week post-match for official confirmation. Any announcement of fixture postponement or cancellation would be critical; such events remain rare but have occurred in professional rugby. Current pricing may reflect incomplete information or low trading volume rather than genuine certainty about the sporting outcome.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.lnr.fr/top-14. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Top 14: Toulon vs Bayonne" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$200 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.lnr.fr/top-14. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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