Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Norway Eliteserien game, scheduled for Saturday, May 9, 2026 between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Fredrikstad FK.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Sarpsborg 08 FF | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw (Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. Fredrikstad FK) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Fredrikstad FK | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Sarpsborg 08 FF will host Fredrikstad FK in a Norway Eliteserien fixture on Saturday, 9 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket is pricing this event at 100% implied probability, reflecting near-certainty in market participants' assessment of the match occurring as scheduled. This extreme probability typically signals either minimal perceived execution risk or a thin liquidity environment where marginal orders have moved the price to an edge.
Norwegian Eliteserien matches have historically been cancelled or postponed at low rates outside winter months; spring fixtures in May face minimal weather-related disruption compared to autumn and winter rounds. Sarpsborg 08 and Fredrikstad are both established top-division clubs with professional infrastructure, reducing operational cancellation risk. However, the 100% reading warrants scrutiny: comparable sports markets rarely trade at absolute extremes unless the settlement criteria are extraordinarily narrow or liquidity is genuinely sparse.
Traders should monitor official Eliteserien fixture confirmations and any squad-level disruptions in the fortnight preceding the match. Norwegian football authorities typically announce postponements only under exceptional circumstances—severe weather, stadium unavailability, or security concerns. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on match day, allowing minimal time for late-breaking developments to be priced in. Any material news regarding venue access, regulatory approval, or force majeure events would represent the primary catalyst for repricing away from the current consensus.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.eliteserien.no/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. Fredrikstad FK" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$35K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.eliteserien.no/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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