Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming NHL game, scheduled for May 12 at 9:30PM ET: If the Ducks win, the market will resolve to "Ducks". If the Golden Knights win, the market will resolve to "Golden Knights". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Ducks vs. Golden Knights | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 79% YES | 21% NO |
| O/U 5.5 | 59% YES | 41% NO |
| O/U 6.5 | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| O/U 7.5 | 27% YES | 74% NO |
| Spread -1.5 | 35% YES | 66% NO |
The Anaheim Ducks face the Vegas Golden Knights in an NHL matchup scheduled for 12 May at 9:30PM ET, with settlement occurring the following day. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 43% implied probability for a Ducks victory, suggesting the market views the Golden Knights as modest favourites. This probability is formed through real-time trading activity on the platform's order book, where participants price in available information about team form, roster status, and playoff positioning.
Historical matchups between these franchises provide context for evaluating the current odds. The Golden Knights have generally held a competitive edge in recent seasons, though playoff performance often diverges from regular-season patterns. The Ducks' probability of 43% aligns with a team considered capable but not favoured in a single-elimination or high-stakes contest. Comparable playoff scenarios suggest markets typically price teams with weaker recent form or injury concerns in the 35–45% range, making the current level neither extreme nor negligible.
Traders should monitor roster announcements through to game time, particularly regarding injury status for key players on either side. Vegas media outlets and official NHL communications remain the primary sources for late-breaking information affecting game conditions. The settlement window closes at 01:30 UTC on 13 May, allowing approximately four hours post-game for final score confirmation and resolution. Any postponement would extend the market's duration, whilst cancellation without rescheduling would trigger the 50-50 contingency clause.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.nhl.com/scores. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Ducks vs. Golden Knights" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$9K in lifetime turnover and $63K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $8K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.nhl.com/scores. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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