Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the MLS game, scheduled for May 9 at 1:00 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Toronto FC (-1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Inter Miami CF (-1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Toronto FC (-2.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Inter Miami CF (-2.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Toronto FC and Inter Miami CF are scheduled to meet in an MLS regular-season fixture on 9 May 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. The settlement window for this market closes at 17:00 ET on the same day, allowing approximately four hours post-match for final order book activity. The 0% implied probability currently reflected on Polymarket's order book suggests either minimal liquidity at the ask side or a structural absence of traders willing to price YES positions at any level, a common pattern for niche MLS derivative markets that attract lower volume than headline fixtures.
Historical MLS markets of comparable specificity—secondary or tertiary betting lines on regular-season matches—typically see probability formation driven by late-week team news, injury confirmations, and lineup announcements rather than pre-match consensus. Toronto FC and Inter Miami have developed a competitive rivalry in recent seasons, with both clubs competing for playoff positioning. The current 0% reading should be interpreted as a liquidity gap rather than certainty; traders entering positions ahead of official team sheets and final squad confirmations often shift probabilities substantially in the 48–72 hours before kickoff.
Catalysts to monitor include official roster updates from both clubs, confirmation of key player availability, and any weather or scheduling changes announced by MLS. Recent MLS communications typically arrive mid-week. The settlement window's tight closure four hours post-match means traders should expect heightened order book activity in the final pre-match period as information asymmetries narrow and positions are squared.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Toronto FC vs. Inter Miami CF - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$68K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $67K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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