Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the MLS game, scheduled for May 9 at 4:30 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| CF Montréal (-1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Orlando City SC (-1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| CF Montréal (-2.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Orlando City SC (-2.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
CF Montréal will face Orlando City SC in a Major League Soccer fixture on 9 May 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 4:30 PM Eastern Time. The market is currently pricing additional betting options for this match at 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, indicating either extremely tight liquidity or a technical settlement condition that has already been determined.
The 100% probability reading is unusual for a standard sports market and typically reflects either a binary outcome already locked in (such as the match being officially cancelled or postponed) or minimal order book depth at the current price levels. Historical precedent suggests that MLS regular-season matches rarely settle at such extremes unless external factors—weather warnings, venue unavailability, or league administrative decisions—have already materialised. Comparable markets on Polymarket for other sports fixtures show that genuine uncertainty usually produces probabilities in the 40–70% range even for heavily favoured outcomes.
Traders should monitor official MLS communications and team announcements through early May for any fixture changes, as the settlement window closes on 9 May at 8:30 PM ET, just two hours after scheduled kick-off. Weather forecasts for the Montréal or Orlando regions, injury updates to key players, and any league-wide scheduling adjustments would represent material catalysts. The current order book depth and any subsequent price movement will indicate whether the 100% reading reflects genuine certainty or simply sparse liquidity at the current ask.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "CF Montréal vs. Orlando City SC - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$52K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlssoccer.com/schedule/scores. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: