Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks, scheduled for May 19 at 9:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants win the game. This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Arizona Diamondbacks win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 62% YES | 38% NO |
| NRFI | 46% YES | 54% NO |
The San Francisco Giants travel to Arizona for a regular-season MLB matchup against the Diamondbacks on 19 May at 9:40PM ET. Current order book pricing on Polymarket implies a 62% probability of a Giants victory, reflecting modest favouritism despite the game being played in Arizona's home stadium. The settlement window extends to 27 May, allowing for postponements or rescheduling within that five-day window.
Historical matchups between these National League West rivals show competitive balance, though recent season performance diverges considerably. The Giants and Diamondbacks typically split games across their annual series, with home-field advantage mattering in roughly 54–56% of outcomes across comparable divisional pairings. The current 62% probability suggests traders are pricing in factors beyond simple home-field disadvantage—likely roster composition, recent form, or pitching matchups favourable to San Francisco.
Key variables affecting this market include starting pitcher announcements, which typically arrive 24–48 hours before game time, and any roster changes due to injury or roster moves. Weather conditions in Phoenix in May—particularly evening temperatures affecting ball carry—can shift outcomes marginally. Recent team performance streaks, bullpen availability following prior games, and any last-minute lineup adjustments will influence the order book as game time approaches. Traders should monitor official MLB communications and team injury reports through the settlement window, particularly if postponement becomes likely.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $826 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 27 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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