Trade: Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming MLB game between the Miami Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for May 15 at 7:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Miami Marlins" if the Miami Marlins win the game. This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $20K
- Total Volume
- $12
- 24h Volume
- $12
- Open Interest
- $12
Market outcomes
| Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| NRFI | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Market context
The Miami Marlins face the Tampa Bay Rays in an MLB regular-season matchup scheduled for 15 May at 7:10 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 44% implied probability for a Marlins victory, pricing the Rays as slight favourites at 56%. This probability distribution emerges from real-time trading activity and represents the aggregate assessment of market participants regarding win likelihood given current roster composition, recent form, and ballpark conditions.
Historical matchups between these AL East divisional rivals provide context for evaluating the current odds. The Rays have maintained a structural competitive advantage over the Marlins in recent seasons, with Tampa Bay's pitching-focused roster construction and cost-controlled approach yielding consistent playoff appearances. The Marlins, conversely, have experienced roster volatility and rebuilding phases that have limited their competitive window. Head-to-head records favour Tampa Bay, though individual game outcomes remain contingent on starting pitcher matchups and daily lineup availability.
Traders should monitor roster announcements through 15 May, particularly regarding injury status for key position players or starting pitchers on either side. Weather conditions at loanDepot park in Miami may influence game dynamics, as the Marlins' home ballpark characteristics favour certain pitch types. Recent performance trends—including each team's record in their last ten games and bullpen availability following preceding contests—constitute material catalysts. The settlement window extends to 22 May, allowing for postponement resolution should weather or scheduling disruptions occur.
Wikipedia Context
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Miami MarlinsThe Miami Marlins are an American professional baseball team based in Miami. The Marlins compete in Major League Baseball (MLB) as a member club of the National League (NL) East Division. The team plays its home games at LoanDepot Park.
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Miami Marlins minor league players
Below is a partial list of minor league baseball players in the Miami Marlins system:
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Miami Marlins all-time roster
The following is a list of players, both past and current, who appeared at least in one game for the Miami Marlins franchise, known as the Florida Marlins from their inception in 1993 through the 2011 season.
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Miami Marlins award winners and league leaders
The Miami Marlins are a professional baseball team that has played in the National League since the team's founding in 1993. Major League Baseball offers several awards at the end of each season to commemorate the achievement of individual players. The Most Valuable Player award is generally given to the player who had the greatest impact on the success of h
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.mlb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$12 in lifetime turnover and $20K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $12 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.mlb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 22 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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