Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Liga MX game, scheduled for Saturday, May 9, 2026 between CF Cruz Azul and Atlas FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| CF Cruz Azul | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw (CF Cruz Azul vs. Atlas FC) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Atlas FC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
CF Cruz Azul will face Atlas FC in a Liga MX fixture on Saturday, 9 May 2026. The match represents a standard regular-season or playoff encounter in Mexico's top football division, with settlement determined by the official result at the conclusion of the 90-minute fixture (plus any injury time awarded by the referee).
The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability, indicating that traders are pricing this event as a certainty. Such extreme probabilities in football markets typically emerge when one outcome has become mathematically inevitable—for instance, if the fixture were cancelled, postponed indefinitely, or if regulatory changes rendered the match impossible to complete. Historical precedent suggests that Liga MX matches rarely settle at such extremes unless external factors (fixture cancellations, league suspensions, or administrative rulings) intervene. The absence of typical match uncertainty at this probability level warrants scrutiny of whether settlement conditions have already been effectively determined.
Traders should monitor official Liga MX communications regarding fixture scheduling, team eligibility, or any league-wide disruptions that might affect the 9 May date. Recent administrative changes or force majeure events in Mexican football could explain the certainty reflected in current pricing. Additionally, any announcement concerning venue changes, postponements, or regulatory interventions would materially alter the settlement outcome. The settlement window closes on 10 May at 03:15 UTC, allowing minimal time for late-breaking developments after the scheduled match time.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://ligamx.net/cancha/partidos. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "CF Cruz Azul vs. Atlas FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$83K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $82K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://ligamx.net/cancha/partidos. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: