Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming J1 100 Year Vision League game, scheduled for Sunday, May 10, 2026 between FC Tōkyō and Tōkyō Verdy.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| FC Tōkyō | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw (FC Tōkyō vs. Tōkyō Verdy) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Tōkyō Verdy | 0% YES | 100% NO |
FC Tōkyō and Tōkyō Verdy are scheduled to meet on Sunday, 10 May 2026 in a J1 League fixture under the 100 Year Vision League framework. The match represents a derby between two of the capital's most established clubs, with FC Tōkyō having competed in the top flight continuously since 1999 and Tōkyō Verdy returning to J1 after periods in lower divisions. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability, indicating traders are pricing this fixture as certain to occur as scheduled.
Historical precedent suggests J1 League matches rarely fail to materialise once officially scheduled. Fixture cancellations due to weather, administrative issues, or force majeure remain statistically rare in Japanese professional football, with the league maintaining strict scheduling protocols. The 100% probability aligns with how prediction markets have historically priced domestic league matches in established competitions, where postponements rather than outright cancellations are the typical response to disruptions.
Traders should monitor official J1 League communications regarding squad availability, stadium access, and any administrative changes to the fixture calendar. The settlement window closes on 10 May at 06:00 UTC, which falls after the scheduled match time in Japan Standard Time. Any announcement of fixture rescheduling or cancellation from the J1 League or club communications would be the primary catalyst affecting the current pricing, though such developments remain uncommon in the final weeks before a domestic league match.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.jleague.jp/en/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "FC Tōkyō vs. Tōkyō Verdy" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$94K in lifetime turnover and $833K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $86K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.jleague.jp/en/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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