Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming J1 100 Year Vision League game, scheduled for Sunday, May 17, 2026 between Fagiano Okayama and Shimizu S-Pulse.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Fagiano Okayama | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| Draw (Fagiano Okayama vs. Shimizu S-Pulse) | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| Shimizu S-Pulse | 31% YES | 70% NO |
Fagiano Okayama will host Shimizu S-Pulse in a J1 League fixture on 17 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a YES outcome at 39%, implying roughly a 61% probability favoured towards Shimizu or a draw. This probability reflects the relative league standing and recent form of both sides as of early 2026, though the settlement window extends through the match completion.
Shimizu S-Pulse have historically been a mid-table to upper-mid-table J1 side with greater financial resources and squad depth than Fagiano Okayama, a smaller Okayama-based club. Comparable fixtures between clubs of differing stature in the J1 League typically see the stronger side priced as favourite, though home advantage for Okayama carries measurable weight in Japanese football. The current 39% YES reflects a meaningful home-ground effect discount applied to what would otherwise be a wider gap.
Traders should monitor squad availability in the weeks preceding the match, particularly injury reports for key players at both clubs and any managerial changes. Shimizu's fixture congestion in May—including potential cup commitments—could affect team selection and fatigue levels. Weather conditions in Okayama in mid-May are typically mild and stable, unlikely to be a significant variable. Any late-season form shifts in April and early May will provide updated information on both sides' momentum heading into the fixture.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.jleague.jp/en/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Fagiano Okayama vs. Shimizu S-Pulse" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $24K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.jleague.jp/en/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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