Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Maria Sara Popa and Lilian Poling in the ITF Women Bucharest, originally scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 5:15AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Maria Sara Popa' if Maria Sara Popa advances against Lilian Poling. This market will resolve to 'Lilian Poling' if Lilian Poling advances against Maria Sara Popa. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Bucharest: Maria Sara Popa vs Lilian Poling | 92% YES | 8% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Maria Sara Popa, a Romanian ITF competitor, faces Lilian Poling in a Women's ITF tournament match scheduled for 14 May 2026 in Bucharest. The 50% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty between two players operating at similar competitive levels within the ITF circuit. Settlement occurs by 21 May 2026, allowing a seven-day window for match completion before the market resolves to a tie-break outcome.
Popa competes primarily on the ITF Women's circuit with ranking fluctuations typical of players in the 200–400 WTA ranking band. Poling, similarly positioned within ITF competition, brings comparable match experience. Historical ITF matchups at this tier show outcomes heavily influenced by surface conditions, recent form, and head-to-head records where available. The 50-50 split suggests traders lack decisive information favouring either player—a common state when both competitors lack extensive public match histories or recent tournament results that would shift probability meaningfully.
Traders should monitor ITF tournament draws and any withdrawal announcements closer to the scheduled date, as player injuries or scheduling conflicts frequently alter ITF fixtures. The early morning start time (5:15 AM ET) may affect player performance and broadcast availability, potentially influencing information flow to the market. Any official postponement beyond 7 May would trigger the tie-break resolution clause, fundamentally altering market dynamics. Current order book depth will indicate whether the 50% mark reflects genuine equilibrium or thin liquidity masking directional conviction.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Bucharest: Maria Sara Popa vs Lilian Poling" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $156 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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