Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Yuka Hosoki and Junhan Zhang in the ITF Women Nakhon Pathom, originally scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 12:15AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Yuka Hosoki' if Yuka Hosoki advances against Junhan Zhang. This market will resolve to 'Junhan Zhang' if Junhan Zhang advances against Yuka Hosoki. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Nakhon Pathom: Yuka Hosoki vs Junhan Zhang | 16% YES | 85% NO |
| Completed Match | 49% YES | 51% NO |
Yuka Hosoki and Junhan Zhang are scheduled to compete in the ITF Women's tournament at Nakhon Pathom on 14 May 2026. The market currently prices Hosoki's advancement at 16% on Polymarket's order book, reflecting substantial backing for Zhang. ITF tournaments at this tier typically feature players ranked outside the WTA top 200, where form volatility and surface-specific strengths create meaningful uncertainty in match outcomes.
Hosoki, a Japanese player, and Zhang, competing from China, operate within the ITF circuit where recent performances on hard courts and clay surfaces carry predictive weight. Historical ITF matchups at Nakhon Pathom show that unseeded or lower-ranked players frequently advance when facing opponents with limited recent tournament activity. The 16% probability suggests the market has incorporated available ranking data and recent match records, though ITF draws often lack comprehensive pre-tournament information compared to WTA events.
Traders should monitor official ITF tournament confirmations and any player withdrawal announcements through the WTA website or ITF rankings updates, as scheduling changes occur regularly at this level. The settlement window extends to 21 May, allowing seven days beyond the scheduled date for match completion. Court surface conditions at the Thai venue and any late fitness concerns could shift the probability meaningfully, particularly given the limited public information typically available for ITF-level competitors in the days immediately preceding play.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Nakhon Pathom: Yuka Hosoki vs Junhan Zhang" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$30 in lifetime turnover and $167 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $30 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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