Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Ivan Marrero Curbelo and Charles Chen in the ITF Men Kayseri, originally scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 6:15AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ivan Marrero Curbelo' if Ivan Marrero Curbelo advances against Charles Chen. This market will resolve to 'Charles Chen' if Charles Chen advances against Ivan Marrero Curbelo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Charles Chen | 79% YES | 21% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Ivan Marrero Curbelo, a Spanish ITF competitor, faces Charles Chen in a Men's ITF tournament match scheduled for 3 June 2026 in Kayseri, Turkey. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 78% implied probability favouring Marrero Curbelo's advancement, suggesting market participants view him as the stronger prospect in this matchup. The settlement window extends to 10 June, allowing a seven-day buffer for fixture delays before the market resolves to a 50-50 split.
Marrero Curbelo's positioning at this probability level aligns with typical ITF ranking disparities where established Spanish clay-court players often command significant odds against less-prominent opponents. Chen's profile as a challenger at this tier suggests limited recent ITF success or ranking points, a pattern consistent with markets pricing in experience and surface familiarity advantages. Historical ITF Men's matches at this probability range (75-80%) show completion rates above 90%, with favoured players advancing in roughly 85% of cases, though upsets remain material enough to justify Chen's 22% implied probability.
Key catalysts for traders include any withdrawal announcements in the week preceding 3 June, as ITF scheduling frequently experiences last-minute changes. Surface conditions in Kayseri during early June and any recent injury reports from either player could shift the order book materially. The match timing at 6:15 AM ET may affect liquidity on Polymarket, with European morning hours typically seeing lower volume on tennis fixtures. Monitor ITF official communications for fixture confirmations, as rescheduling beyond the seven-day window would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Charles Chen" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$105 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $105 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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