Trade: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs. HNK Hajduk Split
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Prva Liga game, scheduled for Saturday, May 16, 2026 between NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and HNK Hajduk Split.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $5K
- Total Volume
- $1
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $1
Market outcomes
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 30% YES | 71% NO |
| Draw (NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs. HNK Hajduk Split) | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| HNK Hajduk Split | 48% YES | 52% NO |
Market context
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb will face HNK Hajduk Split in a Prva Liga fixture on Saturday, 16 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a YES outcome (Lokomotiva victory) at 26%, reflecting substantial backing for a Hajduk win or draw. This probability has formed through active trading across the market's depth, with the spread between bid and ask indicating moderate liquidity typical of Croatian domestic football markets settled five weeks ahead.
Historically, Hajduk Split holds a competitive edge in head-to-head records against Lokomotiva, though Zagreb's home advantage has proven significant in recent seasons. The Prva Liga's competitive structure means both clubs typically field full-strength squads in May fixtures, particularly when European qualification spots remain contested. Comparable matches between these rivals over the past three seasons have settled with roughly equal frequency across all three outcomes, though Hajduk's away record in Zagreb has been notably weaker than their home performances.
Traders should monitor team news regarding injury status and European competition schedules in the weeks preceding the match. Hajduk's participation in European qualifying rounds could affect squad rotation decisions. Lokomotiva's domestic form trajectory through April and early May will be material, as will any managerial changes or tactical shifts announced by either club. Weather conditions on the day—typical spring conditions in Zagreb rarely prove decisive—are unlikely to shift the current probability materially unless extreme.
Wikipedia Context
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NK Lokomotiva ZagrebNogometni klub Lokomotiva Zagreb, commonly known as Lokomotiva Zagreb or simply Lokomotiva, is a Croatian professional football club based in Zagreb. It competes in the Croatian First Football League, the country's top division. Founded in 1914, the club's first period of success came in the late 1940s and early 1950s, before spending most of the following f
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://hnl.hr/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs. HNK Hajduk Split" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$1 in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://hnl.hr/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs. HNK Hajduk Split"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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