Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Ligue 2 game, scheduled for May 2 at 2:00 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ES Troyes AC (-1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC (-1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ES Troyes AC (-2.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC (-2.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
ES Troyes AC will face Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC in a Ligue 2 fixture on 2 May 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 14:00 ET. The market currently reflects a 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, indicating either extreme certainty among traders or minimal liquidity at present pricing. Settlement occurs at 18:00 UTC on match day, allowing roughly four hours post-match for final confirmation.
Ligue 2 markets at this distance from fixture date typically exhibit wide probability ranges as information asymmetries persist. Comparable late-season Ligue 2 encounters have seen substantial repricing in the final fortnight, particularly when team form, injury status, or playoff implications shift. The current 100% reading suggests either the market has priced in a heavily favoured outcome or the order book lacks sufficient depth to establish a more granular probability. Historical volatility in French second-division markets warrants caution around such extreme readings.
Traders should monitor team news releases, official injury confirmations, and any fixture rescheduling announcements through late April. Troyes and Lavallois's respective league positions and remaining fixtures will influence motivation levels heading into May. Recent Ligue 2 standings and form data typically emerge via official LFP communications and club statements. Any managerial changes or squad departures announced in the weeks prior could materially shift match dynamics, though such developments remain speculative until formally confirmed.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ligue2.fr/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ES Troyes AC vs. Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ligue2.fr/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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