Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Ligue 2 game, scheduled for Saturday, May 2, 2026 between ES Troyes AC and Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ES Troyes AC | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw (ES Troyes AC vs. Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
ES Troyes AC will face Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC in a Ligue 2 fixture on Saturday, 2 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability, indicating that traders are pricing this match as a certainty to occur as scheduled. This extreme probability typically emerges when settlement conditions are straightforward—the match is confirmed, venue is secured, and no obvious force majeure risks loom in the immediate window.
Ligue 2 matches rarely fail to materialise once fixtures are formally published by the Ligue de Football Professionnel. Historical precedent shows that cancellations or postponements occur primarily due to severe weather, civil unrest, or administrative sanctions. Neither club has faced recent disciplinary action that would jeopardise their participation. Troyes and Lavallois have both maintained stable operational status throughout the 2025–26 season, with no reported financial or structural crises that might trigger withdrawal.
Traders should monitor fixture confirmations from the LFP in the fortnight preceding the match, as well as any injury or suspension announcements that might affect squad availability—though these would not affect settlement. Weather forecasts for the Aube region should be tracked from late April onwards, though Ligue 2 has historically played through moderate conditions. The settlement window closes on 2 May at 18:00 UTC, providing a narrow window post-match for official confirmation. Any announcement of postponement or cancellation before that deadline would be the primary catalyst shifting the current probability materially.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ligue2.fr/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ES Troyes AC vs. Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$17K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ligue2.fr/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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