Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Friday, June 5, 2026 between Slovakia and Montenegro.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Slovakia | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| Draw (Slovakia vs. Montenegro) | 45% YES | 56% NO |
| Montenegro | 46% YES | 54% NO |
Slovakia and Montenegro will meet in a FIFA International Friendly on Friday, 5 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Slovakia victory at 39%, implying roughly even odds between a draw (typically 25–30% in friendly matches) and a Montenegro win. This probability reflects the teams' relative strength in UEFA rankings and recent form, with Slovakia holding a modest advantage in historical head-to-head records and qualification credentials.
Historical context suggests friendly matches between nations of comparable development often settle near parity, particularly when neither side has strong recent momentum. Slovakia has maintained UEFA ranking stability in the 40–50 range over recent years, whilst Montenegro typically sits 50–60 places lower. In direct encounters since 2010, Slovakia has won three of five matches, with one draw. The 39% YES probability on the order book appears calibrated to reflect Slovakia's structural advantage whilst acknowledging the inherent volatility of friendlies, where squad rotation, injury absences, and tactical experimentation reduce predictability relative to competitive fixtures.
Traders should monitor squad announcements in the weeks preceding the match, as both federations typically release preliminary rosters by late May. Injury status of key players—particularly Slovakia's attacking options and Montenegro's defensive shape—will influence late-market movement. The timing of any warm-up fixtures either nation plays beforehand may also shift the probability, as recent form often reprices friendly match expectations. Settlement occurs immediately after full-time, with no extra time or penalty shootouts affecting the outcome.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Slovakia vs. Montenegro" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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