Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for Sunday, May 31, 2026 between Singapore and Mongolia.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Singapore | 46% YES | 55% NO |
| Draw (Singapore vs. Mongolia) | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Mongolia | 45% YES | 56% NO |
Singapore and Mongolia are scheduled to meet in a FIFA International Friendly on 31 May 2026. The match represents a relatively low-stakes fixture between two nations with markedly different competitive standings in Asian football. Singapore currently ranks approximately 159th in the FIFA world rankings, whilst Mongolia sits considerably lower at around 190th. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 45% implied probability for a Singapore victory, suggesting the market prices the home advantage and marginally superior ranking as meaningful but not decisive factors.
Historical context shows Singapore has won the majority of direct encounters against Mongolia, though friendlies between mismatched opponents often produce unpredictable results. Mongolia's participation in competitive Asian football remains limited, with the nation rarely fielding squads against higher-ranked opponents. The 45% probability implies meaningful uncertainty, likely driven by Mongolia's relative inexperience at this level and the inherent volatility of friendly matches where squad rotation and preparation intensity vary considerably.
Traders should monitor team selection announcements in the weeks preceding the fixture, particularly whether Singapore deploys a full-strength squad or uses the friendly for youth development. Mongolia's recent competitive schedule and injury status will also influence match dynamics. Fixture congestion in late May 2026, when domestic leagues across Asia conclude their seasons, may affect player availability for both sides. Any late withdrawals or squad composition changes announced closer to the settlement window could shift the order book materially.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Singapore vs. Mongolia" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1 in lifetime turnover and $961 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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