Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming FIFA International Friendlies game between Guatemala and Czechia, scheduled for June 4, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Guatemala | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Draw | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Czechia | 49% YES | 51% NO |
Guatemala and Czechia will contest a FIFA International Friendly on 4 June 2026 at 8:00 PM ET, with this market settling on the halftime scoreline. The 49% implied probability for a Guatemala halftime victory reflects current order-book positioning on Polymarket, where traders are pricing near even odds for the Central American side to lead at the interval. Settlement occurs at 2026-06-05T00:00:00Z, immediately following the match conclusion.
Halftime markets in international friendlies typically exhibit wider probability ranges than full-match outcomes, given the compressed timeframe and reduced sample size for scoring patterns. Guatemala's recent competitive record shows mixed results in CONCACAF qualifying and tournament play, whilst Czechia competes within UEFA's more established structure. Historical comparable friendlies between teams of similar ranking suggest halftime leads occur in roughly 45–55% of cases depending on home advantage and squad composition. The current 49% probability sits near the neutral expectation, indicating the market perceives marginal differences in attacking capability or defensive setup between the sides.
Key variables for traders include confirmed team lineups, which typically emerge 24–48 hours before kickoff, and any late injury announcements affecting key attacking or defensive personnel. Venue conditions at the scheduled location and recent form trajectories—particularly whether either side has played competitive matches in the preceding weeks—will influence early-game tempo and pressing intensity. Weather forecasts and pitch conditions closer to match day may shift probability if conditions favour direct or possession-based approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Guatemala vs. Czechia - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $16 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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