Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for June 5 at 2:00 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Georgia (-1.5) | 42% YES | 58% NO |
| Bahrain (-1.5) | 42% YES | 58% NO |
| Georgia (-2.5) | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| Bahrain (-2.5) | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 62% YES | 38% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 48% YES | 53% NO |
Georgia and Bahrain will meet in a FIFA International Friendly on 5 June 2026 at 2:00 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices the YES side at 42%, reflecting modest confidence in the proposition's resolution. This probability emerges from real-time trading activity as participants weigh available information about team composition, recent form, and the fixture's scheduling reliability.
International friendlies between lower-ranked nations carry historical volatility in prediction markets, partly because squad selection and participation remain fluid until official team sheets are released. Georgia, ranked around 74th globally, typically fields a competitive squad for such matches, whilst Bahrain (ranked approximately 127th) has shown inconsistent participation in recent windows. The 42% probability suggests traders are pricing meaningful uncertainty—either about whether the match occurs as scheduled or about specific market conditions tied to the fixture's outcome.
Key catalysts include official confirmation of both nations' squad selections, which typically arrive 10–14 days before the match, and any fixture postponements or relocations announced by FIFA or the respective football associations. Injuries to key players, diplomatic considerations affecting travel, or last-minute scheduling conflicts have historically disrupted friendly fixtures. Traders should monitor official FIFA communications and the Georgian and Bahraini football federation websites for updates. The settlement window closes 5 June at 18:00 UTC, leaving a narrow window for resolution once the match concludes.
The Georgia Rail Passenger Program (GRPP) was a set of plans, as yet unbuilt, for intercity and commuter rail in the U.S. state of Georgia.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Georgia vs. Bahrain - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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