Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the FIFA International Friendlies game, scheduled for June 9 at 10:00 AM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bahrain (-1.5) | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Syria (-1.5) | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Bahrain (-2.5) | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Syria (-2.5) | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 54% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 49% YES | 51% NO |
Bahrain and Syria are scheduled to contest a FIFA International Friendly on 9 June 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 47% probability for the "More Markets" outcome, indicating moderate conviction among traders that additional betting markets will be created for this fixture beyond those already live. This probability has formed through cumulative trading activity and reflects the collective assessment of whether secondary or derivative markets—such as player performance props, corner totals, or half-time outcomes—will materialise before settlement.
International Friendlies between lower-ranked nations historically generate fewer ancillary markets than competitive fixtures or matches involving top-tier sides. Bahrain (ranked 131st) and Syria (ranked 126th) represent a pairing unlikely to attract the liquidity or broadcaster attention that typically triggers extended market suites. Comparable fixtures between regional sides in prior windows have shown variable market expansion; some garnered only core match-outcome markets, whilst others developed modest prop offerings depending on regional interest and platform prioritisation.
Traders should monitor FIFA's official fixture confirmation and any broadcast arrangements, particularly whether regional sports networks commit coverage that might justify expanded market development. Platform announcements regarding market creation typically occur within 48 hours of fixture confirmation. The settlement window closes 9 June at 14:00 UTC, leaving a narrow window for new markets to be created and settled. Current liquidity on the order book and historical precedent for similar-tier friendlies suggest the 47% probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than strong directional conviction.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Bahrain vs. Syria - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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