Trade: Fulham FC vs. Newcastle United FC
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Premier League game, scheduled for Sunday, May 24, 2026 between Fulham FC and Newcastle United FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $2K
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Fulham FC | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| Draw (Fulham FC vs. Newcastle United FC) | 36% YES | 64% NO |
| Newcastle United FC | 38% YES | 63% NO |
Market context
Fulham and Newcastle will meet on the final day of the 2025–26 Premier League season on 24 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Fulham victory at 47 per cent implied probability, reflecting modest backing for the home side despite Newcastle's established status as a stronger outfit in recent seasons. This probability has formed through real-time trading activity and reflects the market's assessment of relative squad strength, form trajectory, and contextual factors as of today.
Historically, final-day Premier League matches often see compressed odds around evenly matched sides, particularly when neither team has secured European qualification or faces relegation. Newcastle finished fifth in 2024–25 and have invested substantially in their squad under their Saudi ownership structure, whilst Fulham, under Marco Silva's management, have consolidated as a mid-table side with occasional European qualification. Head-to-head records favour Newcastle marginally, though Fulham's home record at Craven Cottage has been competitive. The 47 per cent probability suggests the market views this as a genuine toss-up rather than a clear Newcastle advantage.
Key variables for traders include injury status disclosures in the weeks before the match, any late-season form divergence between the clubs, and whether either side has secured a European spot or faces fixture congestion. Managerial changes, squad departures during the summer window, and pre-season preparation quality will all influence the actual matchday dynamics. Monitoring official team news and fixture scheduling from the Premier League will be essential as the settlement window approaches.
Wikipedia Context
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Fulham F.C.Fulham Football Club is a professional football club based in London, England. The club competes in the Premier League, the top tier of English football. Founded in 1879, they have played home games at Craven Cottage since 1896. Fulham contest West London derby rivalries with Chelsea, Brentford and Queens Park Rangers. The club adopted a white shirt and blac
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Fulham F.C. Women
Fulham FC Women, previously known as Fulham LFC, WFC Fulham and Fulham FC Foundation Ladies, is a women's football club based in London, England. The team were dissolved as of 16 May 2006, but were later re-established with independence from Fulham F.C. The club dissolved for a second time in June 2010 when sponsors pulled out following a second successive r
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2007–08 Fulham F.C. season
The 2007–08 season was Fulham F.C.'s seventh consecutive season in the Premier League. Lawrie Sanchez was in charge of the club for the first few months of the season after taking charge at the end of the previous campaign, but left the club by mutual consent in December 2007 after a string of poor results had sent Fulham sliding towards the relegation zone.
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List of Fulham F.C. records and statistics
The following article features the records and statistics of Fulham Football Club, based in Fulham, West London.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.premierleague.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Fulham FC vs. Newcastle United FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.premierleague.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 24 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Fulham FC vs. Newcastle United FC"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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