Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming League One game between Stockport County FC and Stevenage FC, scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Stockport County FC | 38% YES | 63% NO |
| Draw | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Stevenage FC | 19% YES | 81% NO |
Stockport County will host Stevenage in a League One fixture on 13 May 2026, with settlement determined by the halftime scoreline. The 38% YES probability on Polymarket's order book reflects traders pricing a Stockport home win at the interval. This implies roughly 38% chance of Stockport leading at 45 minutes, with the remaining probability distributed across draws and Stevenage away wins in the first half.
Halftime markets in lower-league football typically settle with modest goal frequencies. Historical League One data suggests roughly 35–42% of matches see the home side ahead at the break, depending on relative strength. Stockport's position in the table and recent form will anchor expectations; teams with stronger defensive records tend to concede fewer first-half goals, whilst those pressing early often generate more attacking chances. The current 38% probability sits within the typical range for a competitive fixture, suggesting the market views neither side as heavily favoured in the opening 45 minutes.
Traders should monitor team news and confirmed lineups closer to kickoff, as injuries to key attacking or defensive players shift halftime outcome distributions materially. Fixture congestion in the final weeks of the season may affect squad rotation decisions and player fatigue levels. Weather conditions on the day—particularly wind or heavy rain—can suppress first-half scoring. The settlement window closes at 19:00 GMT on match day, allowing traders to adjust positions based on pre-match information released in the hours before the 15:00 GMT start.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.efl.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Stockport County FC vs. Stevenage FC - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.efl.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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