Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result for the cricket match between Cyprus and Croatia scheduled for 2026-04-25 in T20 Series Cyprus vs Croatia, Women. This market resolves according to (1) the official toss result and (2) the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Cyprus will be considered correct if Cyprus is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. The outcome corresponding to Croatia will be considered correct if Croatia is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| CYP | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| HRV | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Cyprus and Croatia will contest a women's T20 cricket match on 25 April 2026, with this market requiring both the coin toss outcome and final match result to align with a single team. The settlement hinges on official records from ESPN Cricinfo, meaning a team must win the toss and subsequently win the match for either outcome to resolve YES. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial backing for neither team achieving this double, with traders pricing in the statistical improbability of predicting both independent events correctly.
Women's T20 cricket between developing cricket nations presents limited historical precedent for reliable prediction. Cyprus and Croatia both operate at the periphery of international women's cricket, with sparse competitive records and minimal head-to-head data. The coin toss itself carries approximately 50% probability for each team, but the compounding requirement of also winning the match creates a multiplicative effect that depresses the overall probability significantly. Comparable double-outcome markets in lower-tier cricket competitions typically settle with extremely low frequency, as the conditional probability of winning both events substantially exceeds either outcome independently.
Traders should monitor official fixture confirmations and squad announcements closer to 25 April, as any last-minute cancellations or rescheduling would affect settlement. The market's current pricing suggests the order book has absorbed the mathematical reality that achieving both conditions requires substantial fortune. No recent news sources have reported on this specific fixture, indicating limited media coverage typical of women's cricket at this competitive level.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.espncricinfo.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "T20 Series Cyprus vs Croatia, Women: Cyprus vs Croatia - Toss Match Double" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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