Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result for the cricket match between Lucknow Super Giants and Chennai Super Kings scheduled for 2026-05-15 in Indian Premier League. This market resolves according to (1) the official toss result and (2) the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Lucknow Super Giants will be considered correct if Lucknow Super Giants is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. The outcome corresponding to Chennai Super Kings will be considered correct if Chennai Super Kings is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| LUC | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Draw | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| CHE | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Lucknow Super Giants face Chennai Super Kings in an IPL fixture scheduled for 15 May 2026. This market requires both conditions to resolve YES for LSG: winning the pre-match coin toss and then winning the match itself. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 51% implied probability for this combined outcome, suggesting traders assess roughly even odds that LSG will achieve both conditions. Settlement depends on official records from ESPN Cricinfo, with the window closing on 22 May 2026.
Historical IPL data shows coin toss outcomes are genuinely random events, with no systematic bias favouring either franchise over a season. However, the conditional probability of winning a match given a favourable toss varies significantly by team strength and ground conditions. CSK has historically maintained a stronger win rate than LSG across IPL seasons, which would mathematically reduce LSG's probability of achieving both conditions. The 51% probability currently priced suggests the market is weighting LSG's toss chances (approximately 50%) against their match-winning capability, implying traders estimate LSG's conditional match-win probability at around 50% if they win the toss.
Traders should monitor team composition announcements and injury updates in the weeks preceding the fixture, as these directly affect match-winning probability. Ground conditions at the scheduled venue, weather forecasts closer to 15 May, and recent form trends for both franchises will influence how the order book reprices. CSK's historical consistency and squad depth typically command respect in IPL markets, which may explain why the combined outcome sits at even money rather than higher.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.espncricinfo.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings - Toss Match Double" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $11 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 22 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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