Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result for the cricket match between Gujarat Titans and Chennai Super Kings scheduled for 2026-04-26 in Indian Premier League. This market resolves according to (1) the official toss result and (2) the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Gujarat Titans will be considered correct if Gujarat Titans is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. The outcome corresponding to Chennai Super Kings will be considered correct if Chennai Super Kings is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| GUJ | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| CHE | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Gujarat Titans and Chennai Super Kings will contest an IPL match on 26 April 2026, with this market requiring Gujarat Titans to win both the pre-match coin toss and the subsequent match for a YES resolution. The current order book on Polymarket is pricing this outcome at 100% implied probability, suggesting either extreme confidence in Gujarat Titans' prospects or potential liquidity constraints at the current price level.
Historical IPL data shows that toss outcomes and match results operate as largely independent events. Across the tournament's history, teams winning the toss have won the subsequent match roughly 50–52% of the time, with venue conditions, team composition and opposition strength driving results far more than the toss itself. The compound probability of winning both toss and match should theoretically sit substantially below either individual probability, typically in the 25–35% range depending on team strength. The 100% pricing suggests the market may lack sufficient depth to reflect realistic odds, or traders are pricing in information not yet publicly available.
Key catalysts include team announcements regarding squad composition and injury status, which typically emerge in the week preceding the match. Weather forecasts for the match venue will influence toss strategy and team selection decisions. Recent IPL form, particularly Gujarat Titans' and Chennai Super Kings' performance in matches immediately prior to 26 April, will shape expectations around match outcomes. Traders should monitor ESPNcricinfo and official IPL channels for squad confirmations and any fixture changes.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.espncricinfo.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings - Toss Match Double" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$387 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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