Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Copa do Brasil game, scheduled for Wednesday, May 13, 2026 between EC Jacuipense and SE Palmeiras.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| EC Jacuipense | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| Draw (EC Jacuipense vs. SE Palmeiras) | 16% YES | 85% NO |
| SE Palmeiras | 75% YES | 25% NO |
EC Jacuipense, a regional club from Bahia competing in Brazil's lower divisions, will face SE Palmeiras, a three-time Copa Libertadores champion and one of Brazil's most successful sides, in the Copa do Brasil on 13 May 2026. The 11% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the substantial quality gap between the two sides, with Palmeiras heavily favoured to advance.
Copa do Brasil knockout matches between elite and regional-tier clubs typically see the favourites progress at rates exceeding 85–90%, though upsets do occur in single-elimination formats. Jacuipense's pathway to this stage suggests competence at their level, yet Palmeiras' recent domestic dominance—including multiple Série A titles and consistent continental competition—establishes a clear structural advantage. Historical precedent indicates that when Série A clubs face fourth or fifth-tier opposition in the Copa do Brasil, the probability of an upset rarely exceeds 10–15%, positioning the current 11% as broadly consistent with comparable matchups.
Traders should monitor team news regarding Palmeiras' squad rotation and injury status in the days before the fixture, as the club often manages rotation in the Copa do Brasil when balancing domestic and continental commitments. Fixture congestion in May 2026 may influence selection decisions. Jacuipense's recent form and any late tactical announcements could shift sentiment marginally, though structural factors—squad depth, experience, and playing standard—remain the primary drivers of the probability distribution reflected in current order book pricing.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/copa-do-brasil. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "EC Jacuipense vs. SE Palmeiras" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $15K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $135 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/copa-do-brasil. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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