Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Brazil Serie B game, scheduled for May 30 at 5:00 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Athletic Club (-1.5) | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Fortaleza EC (-1.5) | 40% YES | 60% NO |
| Athletic Club (-2.5) | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| Fortaleza EC (-2.5) | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| O/U 0.5 | 61% YES | 40% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 48% YES | 53% NO |
Athletic Club and Fortaleza EC will contest a Serie B fixture on 30 May at 5:00 PM ET, with settlement tied to additional market offerings beyond the primary match outcome. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 45% implied probability for the YES resolution, indicating meaningful uncertainty among traders about which specific markets will materialise or how they will be structured ahead of the settlement window closing on 30 May at 21:00 UTC.
Serie B matches involving established clubs like Athletic Club typically generate secondary market interest when additional betting options become available—goal-scorer markets, corner counts, and card distributions have historically drawn liquidity once fixture details solidify. Fortaleza's recent form and squad availability will influence the breadth of markets offered; clubs with injury concerns or fixture congestion often see narrower market coverage. The 45% probability suggests traders are pricing in genuine uncertainty about market availability rather than confidence in a particular outcome.
Traders should monitor official CBF (Confederação Brasileira de Futebol) announcements regarding fixture confirmation, venue details, and any scheduling changes that might affect market creation. Recent Brazilian Serie B fixtures have occasionally experienced late adjustments to kick-off times or broadcast arrangements, which can delay or alter supplementary market deployment. Team news releases from both clubs in the week preceding 30 May will be material; significant absences or tactical shifts could influence whether operators choose to offer the full suite of secondary markets, directly affecting settlement conditions.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-b. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Athletic Club vs. Fortaleza EC - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-b. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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