Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Brazil Serie B game, scheduled for Sunday, May 24, 2026 between AC Goianiense and São Bernardo FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Draw (AC Goianiense vs. São Bernardo FC) | 36% YES | 65% NO |
| São Bernardo FC | 37% YES | 64% NO |
| AC Goianiense | 44% YES | 56% NO |
AC Goianiense will host São Bernardo FC in a Brazil Serie B fixture on Sunday, 24 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a YES outcome at 34%, reflecting market participants' assessment of an Goianiense victory within the 90-minute match period. This probability has formed across the exchange's liquidity pools as traders have positioned ahead of the settlement window closure at 19:00 UTC on match day.
Goianiense operates as a traditional mid-tier Serie B side with periodic promotion campaigns, whilst São Bernardo represents a smaller club from São Paulo state with more limited resources and historical volatility in performance. Historical matchups between clubs of differing financial scales in Brazil's second division typically see the better-resourced outfit favoured, though home advantage and current form fluctuations create meaningful variance. The 34% probability suggests the market is pricing Goianiense as moderate favourites but not dominant ones—consistent with a home side facing a competitive opponent in a single-match setting.
Traders should monitor team news releases and official Serie B fixture confirmations through the CBF (Confederação Brasileira de Futebol) in the fortnight preceding the match. Injury announcements, particularly for key attacking or defensive personnel, historically shift probabilities by 5–8 percentage points in Serie B markets. Recent form data—win streaks, goal differential, and head-to-head records—typically surfaces via official club channels and Brazilian sports media outlets in the week before fixture day. Weather conditions in Goiás on match day may also influence trading activity closer to settlement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-b. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "AC Goianiense vs. São Bernardo FC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-b. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 24 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: