Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Brazil Série A game, scheduled for May 23 at 8:00 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| O/U 1.5 | 60% YES | 41% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| SE Palmeiras (-1.5) | 22% YES | 79% NO |
| SE Palmeiras (-2.5) | 15% YES | 85% NO |
| CR Flamengo (-1.5) | 35% YES | 65% NO |
| CR Flamengo (-2.5) | 15% YES | 85% NO |
Flamengo and Palmeiras will contest a Série A fixture on 23 May at 20:00 ET, with settlement determined by whether additional betting markets are offered for the match. The 53% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects traders pricing in a moderately favourable likelihood that supplementary markets—such as first goalscorer, total goals, or handicap bets—will be made available alongside the standard match outcome markets.
Historical precedent suggests that major Brazilian derbies typically attract expanded market coverage. Flamengo–Palmeiras encounters, being amongst the most-watched fixtures in Série A, have consistently generated secondary markets on established platforms. The current probability sits between the baseline expectation (where such markets are routine) and a scenario where coverage remains restricted to core outcomes only. Recent Série A broadcasts have seen variable market depth depending on platform liquidity and operational capacity at settlement time.
Traders should monitor Polymarket's own market-creation announcements and broader sportsbook activity in the week preceding the match. Fixture scheduling changes, broadcaster partnerships, or platform operational updates could shift the probability materially. Additionally, the settlement window closes at 00:00 UTC on 24 May, leaving a narrow window after the 20:00 ET kickoff for market confirmation. Current order book depth will reflect real-time assessments of whether platform operators intend to expand coverage for this particular fixture.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-a. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "CR Flamengo vs. SE Palmeiras - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-a. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 24 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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