Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Bolivia LFPB game, scheduled for Sunday, May 17, 2026 between Club ABB and Club Independiente Petrolero.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Club Independiente Petrolero | 40% YES | 60% NO |
| Club ABB | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Draw (Club ABB vs. Club Independiente Petrolero) | 38% YES | 63% NO |
Club ABB will face Club Independiente Petrolero in a Bolivia LFPB fixture on Sunday, 17 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a YES outcome at 41%, implying roughly even odds with a slight lean towards a draw or away victory. This probability reflects real-time trading activity and represents the marginal trader's assessment of ABB's chances in this domestic league encounter.
Bolivian football markets typically exhibit lower liquidity than major European leagues, which can amplify price movements around team news and fixture scheduling changes. Historical context suggests that home advantage in LFPB matches carries material weight, though ABB's recent form and squad depth relative to Petrolero will determine whether the current 41% fairly prices their prospects. Comparable mid-table LFPB fixtures have seen probabilities shift sharply following injury announcements or managerial changes in the weeks preceding kickoff.
Traders should monitor official LFPB communications regarding fixture confirmation, team lineups released typically 48 hours before match day, and any late squad rotation decisions from either club. Bolivian domestic football occasionally experiences fixture postponements due to scheduling conflicts or administrative issues, which would trigger market resolution protocols. The settlement window closes at 19:00 UTC on match day, allowing minimal time for post-match data confirmation, so early confirmation of final lineups and venue status will be critical for positioning decisions.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://lfpb.com.bo/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Club ABB vs. Club Independiente Petrolero" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://lfpb.com.bo/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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