Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming 2. Bundesliga game, scheduled for Sunday, May 3, 2026 between Karlsruher SC and SV Darmstadt 98.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Karlsruher SC | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw (Karlsruher SC vs. SV Darmstadt 98) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| SV Darmstadt 98 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Karlsruher SC will host SV Darmstadt 98 in the 2. Bundesliga on Sunday, 3 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability, meaning traders are pricing this fixture as certain to occur. At such extremes, liquidity typically concentrates at the edges of the book, and any shift in settlement risk would likely trigger rapid repricing.
Fixtures at this probability level historically reflect either administrative certainty or near-zero perceived cancellation risk. The 2. Bundesliga operates under strict scheduling protocols, with matches rarely postponed absent extraordinary circumstances such as severe weather, security threats, or mass player unavailability. Historical precedent suggests that once a fixture reaches the final fortnight before kickoff with no reported complications, the probability of non-occurrence remains negligible. Comparable late-season matches in prior seasons have settled YES at near-identical implied levels.
Traders should monitor official DFL (Deutsche Fußball Liga) announcements regarding fixture confirmation, team injury bulletins, and any force majeure declarations in the Baden-Württemberg region. Stadium availability and licensing status for both clubs should be verified through Karlsruher SC and Darmstadt's official channels. The settlement window closes on 3 May at 11:30 GMT, giving a narrow window for late-breaking developments. Any material change in fixture status would likely emerge through official league communications rather than speculative reporting.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/2bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Karlsruher SC vs. SV Darmstadt 98" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$24K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/2bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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