Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming 2. Bundesliga game between DSC Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC, scheduled for May 17, 2026 at 9:30 AM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hertha BSC match originally scheduled for May 17, 2026 at 9:30 AM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Exact Score: 0-0 | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-1 | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-0 | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-2 | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-1 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| Exact Score: 2-0 | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Exact Score: 0-3 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Exact Score: 1-2 | 49% YES | 51% NO |
Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC will contest a 2. Bundesliga fixture on 17 May 2026, with settlement determined by the final score at 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 49% probability for the exact score outcome, reflecting substantial uncertainty across the listed scorelines. This probability distribution suggests traders are pricing meaningful variance in how the match unfolds, with no single result commanding consensus.
Both clubs have competing promotion ambitions in Germany's second tier. Hertha BSC, the larger Berlin institution, has greater financial resources and squad depth, whilst Arminia Bielefeld has demonstrated resilience in recent seasons. Historical head-to-head records and current league position will inform how traders weight specific scorelines—matches between clubs of similar standing typically produce narrow margins, making draws and single-goal victories more probable than blowouts. The 49% figure reflects this baseline uncertainty rather than conviction toward any particular outcome.
Traders should monitor team news and injury reports through the settlement window, particularly regarding key attacking and defensive personnel. Late fixture scheduling changes, weather conditions affecting play style, and any tactical announcements from either manager could shift the probability distribution across individual scorelines. The settlement window closes at 13:30 UTC on match day, allowing only pre-match information to influence final odds.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/2bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Hertha BSC - Exact Score" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/2bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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