Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Serie A game, scheduled for May 3 at 11:00AM ET: If the Amici Pallacanestro Udinese win, the market will resolve to "Amici Pallacanestro Udinese". If the Aquila Basket Trento win, the market will resolve to "Aquila Basket Trento". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Amici Pallacanestro Udinese vs. Aquila Basket Trento | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Amici Pallacanestro Udinese will face Aquila Basket Trento in a Serie A basketball match scheduled for 3 May at 11:00 AM ET. The market currently shows a 0% implied probability for an Udinese victory on Polymarket's order book, reflecting either a decisive consensus favouring Trento or minimal liquidity at current spreads. Settlement occurs on 10 May at 15:00 UTC, allowing a week-long window after the fixture for final score confirmation including any overtime periods.
Udinese competes in Italy's top basketball division but has historically occupied mid-to-lower table positions, whilst Trento has established itself as a stronger Serie A performer in recent seasons. The 0% probability suggests traders are pricing Trento as heavy favourites, though such extreme probabilities often reflect thin order books rather than certainty. Comparable fixtures between mismatched Serie A sides typically see implied probabilities in the 15–35% range for the weaker team, making today's reading noteworthy for its severity.
Key variables include team roster availability and injury status in the days preceding 3 May, as absences of key players could shift match dynamics materially. Fixture postponement remains a consideration given Italian basketball's scheduling complexities; any delay would extend the market's resolution window. Traders should monitor official Serie A announcements and team social media for squad updates, particularly if either side reports significant injuries or logistical issues affecting travel to the fixture location.
APU Udine, officially Amici Pallacanestro Udinese, also known for sponsorship reasons as APU Old Wild West Udine, is an Italian professional basketball team of the city of Udine, Friuli-Venezia Giulia. The team currently plays in LBA, Italy's national top–tier league. Despite being a distinct club, APU Udine de facto inherited the fanbase of Snaidero Udine,
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.flashscoreusa.com/basketball/italy/lega-a. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Amici Pallacanestro Udinese vs. Aquila Basket Trento" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.flashscoreusa.com/basketball/italy/lega-a. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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