Trade: Basket Zaragoza vs. Valencia
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Liga Endesa game, scheduled for May 13 at 2:00PM ET: If the Basket Zaragoza win, the market will resolve to "Basket Zaragoza". If the Valencia win, the market will resolve to "Valencia". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $757
- Total Volume
- $94
- 24h Volume
- $94
- Open Interest
- $94
Market outcomes
| Basket Zaragoza vs. Valencia | 47% YES | 54% NO |
Market context
Basket Zaragoza will face Valencia in a Liga Endesa matchup scheduled for 13 May at 2:00PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 44% implied probability for a Zaragoza victory, suggesting the market views Valencia as the favoured side. This probability derives from real-time trading activity across the platform's liquidity pools, with the spread between bid and ask prices narrowing as the fixture approaches.
Zaragoza finished the 2024–25 regular season in mid-table standings within Liga Endesa, whilst Valencia has consistently ranked amongst the league's stronger performers. Historical matchups between these clubs show Valencia holding a slight edge in head-to-head records over recent seasons. The 44% probability for Zaragoza aligns with their underdog status, though Liga Endesa fixtures frequently produce competitive results given the league's parity. Home court advantage will be material; the venue for this fixture will influence expected outcomes, as Liga Endesa teams typically perform better at home.
Traders should monitor team news through the settlement window closing 20 May, particularly regarding player availability and injury reports in the days immediately before the match. Fixture postponements remain possible under Liga Endesa protocols, which would keep the market open until completion. Valencia's recent form and any roster changes announced by either club will provide concrete data points for reassessing the current probability. The market's current pricing reflects available information as of today; material developments in either team's circumstances could shift the order book substantially.
Wikipedia Context
-
Basket ZaragozaBasket Zaragoza 2002 S.A.D., more commonly referred to as Basket Zaragoza and as Casademont Zaragoza for sponsorship reasons, is a professional basketball club based in Zaragoza, Spain. The team plays in the Liga ACB and the FIBA Europe Cup. Their home arena is the Pabellón Príncipe Felipe.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.acb.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Basket Zaragoza vs. Valencia" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 47% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $213 if YES resolves true — a 113% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$94 in lifetime turnover and $757 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $94 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Basket Zaragoza vs. Valencia"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 47%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.acb.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Basket Zaragoza vs. Valencia"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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