Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Primera División Argentina game, scheduled for Saturday, May 9, 2026 between CS Independiente Rivadavia and CA Unión.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| CS Independiente Rivadavia | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw (CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. CA Unión) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| CA Unión | 100% YES | 0% NO |
CS Independiente Rivadavia will face CA Unión in a Primera División Argentina fixture on Saturday, 9 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket shows zero probability assigned to a YES outcome, reflecting either extreme confidence in an alternative result or illiquidity at current pricing. Settlement occurs at 02:30 UTC on 10 May, immediately following the final whistle.
Independiente Rivadavia, based in Mendoza, competes in Argentina's top division after promotion in recent seasons. Unión, from Santa Fe, has established itself as a mid-table side with occasional European competition qualification. Historical head-to-head records between provincial clubs and established Buenos Aires-based sides show considerable variance; fixture outcomes depend heavily on form cycles and squad rotation rather than structural advantage. The 0% probability suggests traders are pricing in either a decisive favourite or perceiving settlement ambiguity.
Key variables include team news in the week preceding the match—injury announcements typically emerge Thursday or Friday—and any fixture postponements due to weather or administrative issues, which remain possible in Argentine football. Recent Primera División scheduling has been subject to occasional last-minute changes. Traders should monitor official AFA communications and club social media channels for lineup confirmations. The settlement window's tight closure (02:30 UTC) leaves minimal margin for delayed reporting; any fixture rescheduling would likely trigger market cancellation rather than extension.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.afa.com.ar/es/liga-profesional-de-futbol. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. CA Unión" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$21K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.afa.com.ar/es/liga-profesional-de-futbol. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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