Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team finishes 16th in the 2025-26 Primeira Liga. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to finish 16th in the 2025-26 Primeira Liga (e.g. they mathematically cannot finish in 16th), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2025-2026 Primeira Liga season is cancelled, postponed after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no 16th place team declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Estoril Praia | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Gil Vicente | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Estrela da Amadora | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Tondela | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| Other | — | |
| Sporting CP | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Benfica | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Porto | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The 2025–26 Primeira Liga season will determine which Portuguese club finishes in 16th place and thus secures survival in the top flight through the play-off system. The market currently shows 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, indicating traders assess the listed team as having effectively no realistic path to that exact finishing position. This extreme pricing reflects either strong conviction that the team will finish higher, or conversely, that relegation or mathematical elimination is the more probable outcome.
Primeira Liga's 16th-place finisher enters a two-legged promotion–relegation play-off against the second-placed team from the second division. Historical precedent shows that teams finishing 16th typically face genuine jeopardy; since the play-off system's introduction, several top-flight clubs have dropped to the second tier after finishing in this position. The current 0% probability suggests market participants view the listed team's underlying quality, squad composition, or recent form as substantially stronger than a 16th-place trajectory, or alternatively, that downward momentum makes even 16th unattainable.
Traders should monitor squad changes during the January transfer window, managerial stability, and fixture congestion as the season approaches its May 2026 conclusion. Injury crises, unexpected managerial departures, or a sustained run of poor results could shift the probability upward. The settlement window closes 1 June 2026, allowing for any outstanding matches or administrative clarifications to be resolved before final standings are confirmed by the Portuguese Football Federation.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Primeira Liga: 16th Place (Relegation Survivor)" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $26 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for soccer contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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