Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for Monday, June 22, 2026 between France and Iraq.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Draw (France vs. Iraq) | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| Iraq | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| France | 83% YES | 17% NO |
France and Iraq are scheduled to meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 22 June. The current order book on Polymarket prices an Iraq victory at 11%, implying France as heavy favourites. This reflects France's status as a two-time World Cup champion and consistent top-five ranked side, whilst Iraq has never qualified for a World Cup knockout stage and currently sits outside the top 100 in FIFA rankings.
Historical precedent suggests the probability may understate Iraq's chances relative to typical group-stage mismatches. France has lost to lower-ranked opposition in tournament play—most notably a 2–1 defeat to Switzerland in Euro 2020 knockout stages—and group-stage complacency has caught established sides before. However, Iraq's last competitive fixture against a top-20 nation resulted in heavy defeat, and the gap in squad depth, tactical experience, and tournament infrastructure remains substantial. France's recent form includes consistent qualification from difficult groups and a 2022 World Cup final appearance.
Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates through spring 2026, particularly France's defensive availability. Iraq's qualification path and any late managerial changes could shift preparation quality. Fixture congestion in the preceding club season may affect player fitness for both sides. The settlement window closes at 21:00 UTC on match day, allowing live-market movement as team sheets are confirmed and early match developments unfold.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "France vs. Iraq" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$184 in lifetime turnover and $11K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for soccer contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.fifa.com/fifaplus/en/tournaments/mens/worldcup. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 22 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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