Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from New Jersey. If no 2026 New Jersey Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Jersey Republican party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Candidate C | — | |
| Candidate M | — | |
| Candidate N | — | |
| Justin Murphy | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Richard Tabor | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| Natalie Rivera | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Alex Zdan | 45% YES | 56% NO |
| Vinnie Brand | 1% YES | 100% NO |
New Jersey will hold a Republican primary election in 2026 to select its nominee for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Democrat Bob Menendez. The primary winner will face the Democratic nominee in the general election later that year. The New Jersey Republican Party will formally announce primary results, which will serve as the resolution source for this market, though overwhelming consensus from credible reporting may also suffice if the party announcement is delayed.
Republican primary contests in New Jersey have historically featured competitive fields, though the state's Democratic lean means the primary winner faces an uphill general election battle. The 2024 cycle saw significant variation in turnout and candidate viability across northeastern Republican primaries, with establishment backing and fundraising capacity proving decisive factors. Without an incumbent Republican senator running, the 2026 primary will likely attract multiple candidates seeking to position themselves as the party's standard-bearer in a challenging electoral environment.
Key catalysts for traders include formal candidate announcements, which typically accelerate in late 2025 and early 2026, and endorsements from state party leadership and national figures. Fundraising disclosures will provide signals about candidate momentum and resource availability. The primary election date itself remains subject to state scheduling decisions. Traders should monitor whether any candidate emerges as a consensus establishment choice or whether the field fragments, as this will significantly influence primary dynamics and the probability distribution across candidates.
Chairman of the New Jersey Republican State Committee:1880–1891: Garret Augustus Hobart 1891–1892: John Kean 1892–1904: Franklin Murphy 1904–1907: Frank Obadiah Briggs 1907–1910: Franklin Murphy 1910–1913: Frank Obadiah Briggs 1913–1919: Newton Albert Kendall Bugbee 1919–1927: Edward C. Stokes 1927–1934: Elias Bertram Mott 1934–1935: E. Donald Sterner 1935–1
The New Jersey Republican Party (NJGOP) is the affiliate of the United States Republican Party in New Jersey. It was founded in 1880 and is currently led by Christine Hanlon.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "New Jersey Republican Senate Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$414K in lifetime turnover and $69K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for senate primary contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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