Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ≤3 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| 5 | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| 7 | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| 9 | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| 4 | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| 6 | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| 8 | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| >9 | 43% YES | 57% NO |
The market concerns the frequency of earthquakes measuring 5.5 magnitude or stronger during a single week in May 2026. The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program will serve as the authoritative source, capturing all seismic events globally that meet this threshold within the specified timeframe. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 6% probability that one or more earthquakes of this magnitude will occur during this seven-day window.
Historically, earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or above occur with considerable regularity globally. The USGS records approximately 15 to 20 such events per month worldwide, translating to roughly 3 to 5 per week on average. This baseline suggests the 6% implied probability reflects either a notably pessimistic assessment of seismic activity during this particular week, or traders are pricing in uncertainty around data reporting delays. The distribution of major seismic events remains geographically uneven, with the Pacific Ring of Fire accounting for roughly 90% of global seismic energy release.
Traders monitoring this market should track real-time USGS earthquake data feeds and any significant tectonic activity reported in the days preceding the settlement window. Geological forecasting remains limited in precision for specific timeframes, though increased monitoring occurs in regions with recent seismic unrest. The market's resolution depends entirely on USGS catalogue entries, which occasionally experience delays of hours or days before final magnitude determination. Any substantial earthquake activity in the week prior to May 11 could inform expectations about stress release patterns and aftershock sequences.
The 1997 Manyi earthquake occurred on November 8 at 10:02 UTC. The epicenter was in Nagqu Prefecture in northern Tibet, China. The focal mechanism indicates a left-lateral strike-slip movement. This earthquake had a surface rupture of 17 km (11 mi) long with up to 7 m (23 ft) of left-lateral slip along the Manyi fault, a westward continuation of the Kunlun f
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "How many 5.5 or above earthquakes May 11 - May 17?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $18K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for science contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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