Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation. A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify. The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| PNL | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| UDMR | 30% YES | 70% NO |
| PSD + PNL | 34% YES | 66% NO |
| PSD + UDMR | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| PNL + USR | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| PNL + AUR | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| USR + AUR | 23% YES | 77% NO |
| PSD + PNL + USR | 41% YES | 60% NO |
Romania's next government will be formed following elections or political realignment before May 2026. The market tracks which combination of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), National Liberal Party (PNL), and Save Romania Union (USR) will constitute the governing coalition, with settlement requiring Cabinet participation rather than mere external support. The 38% implied probability reflects current order book positioning on Polymarket, indicating traders assess meaningful uncertainty around coalition outcomes.
Romania's recent political history shows coalition instability and fragmentation. The PSD and PNL have alternated as primary governing partners since 2004, whilst the USR emerged as a significant force only after 2016. Previous coalitions have dissolved mid-term due to internal disputes and corruption investigations affecting key figures. The PSD-PNL partnership governed 2020–2021 before fracturing; subsequent governments involved the PNL with smaller parties. This pattern suggests multiple plausible coalition configurations, which the current probability reflects—no single pairing commands overwhelming likelihood.
Key catalysts include Romania's 2024 parliamentary elections, held in December, which will establish the baseline party strength and negotiating positions for coalition talks. The European Commission's ongoing scrutiny of judicial independence and anti-corruption efforts may influence which parties prove acceptable coalition partners. Announcements regarding ministerial portfolios and confidence votes in parliament will signal which coalition has secured sufficient support. Traders should monitor statements from party leaders regarding coalition red lines, particularly around justice ministry control and EU-related commitments, as these have historically determined compatibility between potential partners.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which coalition will form the next Romanian government?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for romania contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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