Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Daylight (https://x.com/daylightenergy) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Daylight, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| December 31, 2025 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| September 30, 2026 | 21% YES | 80% NO |
| December 31, 2026 | 37% YES | 64% NO |
| March 31, 2026 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| June 30, 2026 | 16% YES | 84% NO |
Daylight Energy, a renewable energy company focused on next-generation power solutions, may or may not issue a tradeable governance token before the end of 2026. The market currently reflects zero probability of this occurring, with the order book on Polymarket showing no meaningful YES positions at any price level. This extreme scepticism suggests traders view a token launch as highly unlikely within the settlement window, though the 0% implied probability indicates limited liquidity rather than certainty.
Comparable cases in the energy sector show mixed outcomes. Several renewable energy firms have announced tokenisation initiatives without delivering tradeable tokens, whilst others have launched tokens that remained illiquid or restricted. Companies like Power Ledger and WePower attempted blockchain-based energy trading platforms with varying degrees of success, though neither achieved mainstream adoption. The distinction between announcement and actual tradeable launch—as specified in this market's criteria—has historically filtered out many projects that generated headlines but failed to deliver functioning tokens.
Traders should monitor Daylight's official communications channels and regulatory filings for any formal token development announcements. The company's recent activity on social media and any partnerships with blockchain infrastructure providers would signal movement towards a launch. The timeline is compressed, with approximately two years remaining until settlement; most serious token projects require 12–18 months of development and regulatory navigation. Any announcement of a specific launch date, testnet deployment, or exchange listing agreements would constitute material catalysts reshaping the current probability assessment.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Daylight launch a token by ___?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$157K in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for pre market contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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