Trade: Flying Tulip FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Opened 9 January 2026 · Settles 1 January 2027 · 415 comments

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Flying Tulip's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Flying Tulip doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: —
Total Volume: $4.0M
24h Volume: —
Open Interest: $0

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Market outcomes

$1B	100% YES	0% NO
$2B	0% YES	100% NO
$800M	100% YES	0% NO
$1.5B	0% YES	100% NO
$2.5B	0% YES	100% NO
$400M	100% YES	0% NO

Market context

Flying Tulip is preparing to launch a governance token, with market participants currently pricing a 100% probability that the token's fully diluted valuation will exceed a specified threshold within 24 hours of becoming publicly tradable. The FDV calculation relies on total token supply multiplied by the price on the most liquid available exchange, measured at 4:00 PM ET on the day following launch. The settlement window closes on 1 January 2027, providing a defined timeframe for the underlying event to occur.

Token launch valuations historically reflect a combination of pre-launch hype, initial liquidity conditions, and founder allocation structures. Comparable governance token launches have demonstrated wide variance in opening FDV, ranging from modest valuations that subsequently appreciated to inflated initial prices that corrected downward. The current 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book suggests either exceptionally high confidence in the threshold being met or limited liquidity at alternative price points, both of which warrant scrutiny from traders evaluating the risk-reward positioning.

Key catalysts include the official launch announcement, which will specify token supply and initial distribution mechanics, alongside any pre-launch partnerships or integrations that could influence opening price discovery. Traders should monitor communications regarding lock-up periods for founder tokens, as these directly affect circulating supply calculations and opening market dynamics. The resolution methodology's dependence on "the most liquid price source available" introduces some discretion in final settlement, particularly relevant if trading fragments across multiple venues at launch.

Wikipedia Context

Flying Clipper (1962 film)
Flying Clipper is a 1962 West German travelogue film directed by Hermann Leitner and Rudolf Nussgruber. It depicts the travels of the Swedish ship Flying Clipper and its merchant marine crew, who sail to various landmarks, both ancient and modern, around the Mediterranean coast. Countries visited include Portugal, Yugoslavia, Egypt, Lebanon, Turkey, Greece,
The Flying Lip Lock
"The Flying Lip Lock" is a song by Ted Nugent from his second live album Intensities in 10 Cities. It reached the US Mainstream Rock chart in March 1981 based on airplay.
Golden Horizon
SV Golden Horizon is a steel-hulled five-masted barque rigged tall ship which is intended to serve as a cruise ship, but has almost never seen active service. Originally named Flying Clipper, the luxury vessel was designed by Polish naval architect Zygmunt Choreń, for Star Clippers Ltd. of Sweden, and built by the Brodosplit Shipyard in Split, Croatia. She i
Williams X-Jet
The Williams X-Jet, created by Williams International, was a small, single-person, light-weight, Vertical Take Off and Landing (VTOL) aircraft powered by a modified Williams F107 turbofan aircraft engine — designated WR-19-7 — after some minor modifications. The vehicle was nicknamed "The Flying Pulpit" for its shape. It was designed to carry one operator an

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Flying Tulip FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$4.0M in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for pre market contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

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Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Flying Tulip FDV above ___ one day after launch?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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